National Get Out of the Doghouse Day 2021 is on Wednesday, July 21, 2021: Get out of the doghouse?

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Wednesday, July 21, 2021 is National Get Out of the Doghouse Day 2021. Today is national get out of the doghouse day july 19th What could you do to get out

Get out of the doghouse....?

LMAO!! That's funny because my husband just got himself in the dog house last night!!! I'm not sure my religion will let me celebrate this holiday. Too bad for him! JK!! Looks like he just got a lucky break!!! lol

How happy are you that you can ignore Valentines Day this year?

How happy are you that you can ignore Valentines Day this year?

I've always hated Valentine's Day. I renamed it years ago to "National Flower and Card Extortion Day."

Normally, if I give a woman flowers or a card, I get bonus points. However on Valentine's Day, I MUST give them just to stay even. Failure to do so results in being in the doghouse.

Do current trends of climate destabilization and green house levels match past predictions?

Do current trends of climate destabilization and green house levels match past predictions?

Cris,

The problem in answering your question is that most of the predictions that are made relating to climate change are long term – usually several decades or more.

The reason for this is that the natural climates are subject to shorter term natural fluctuations that can’t be predicted all that well, these natural variations get in the way of short term predictions.

In the world of climate science we use minimum periods of thirty years to identify trends, changes in the climate and indeed, the validity of climate models. So we need to look at predictions that are at least 30 years old.

Herein lies a problem – there aren’t that many.

The first true climate model was produced in 1979 by an elite group of US scientists nicknamed the JASON’s.

The Carter and Reagan Administrations had commissioned a series of studies into the causes and effects of global warming. By the time Reagan was elected President the US was in the doghouse over it’s role in acid rain and Reagan stated that he “didn’t want to give the world another stick to beat the US with”.

With yet another report showing that global warming was a reality and the climates of the world were changing, the Administration tried to bury the report and refused to publish it. Instead the JASON’s published it through the National Academy of Sciences.

The JASON model was called "Features of Energy Budget Climate Models: An Example of Weather Driven Climate Stability" and was nicknamed the Jason Model of the World. The accompanying report was called "JASON The Long Term Impact of Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide on Climate: Technical Report".

The predictions made were remarkably accurate. If we look at what they predicted for now (i.e. 2011) then in respect of temperature rises they are accurate to less then 0.1°C, in respect of changes to atmospheric composition they are accurate to within about 15%. Had we not taken steps to reduce our emissions then they would have been virtually spot on.

Here’s the report:

Other respondents have provided several links to more recent predictions. Although it’s too early to say conclusively that the predictions are correct, they’re certainly in line with what’s been happening in the real world. It would take an unprecedented change in our climates over the next 10 to 15 years for them to turn out to be inaccurate.

Have a read of the JASON’s report and you’ll see how accurate their predictions were, and bear in mind that this was the first of the climate models created at a time when computers and climate science were in the metaphorical Dark Ages. Today we have a much greater understanding of the influences on the climates and use some of the most powerful computers in the world to make future predictions.

There’s more info and links to studies of the accuracy of climate models and predictions in previous answers of mine:

This answer explains what factors are involved in climate modelling:

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